4 February 2017 - bulletin 54

Updated at 1510 GMT
First warning for 04S


SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Tropical cyclone Carlos / 04S
Warning 01 from JTWC at 1500 GMT
Position 16.7S 56.5E
Location 209 miles NNW of Port Louis, Mauritius
Movement 200° (SSW) at 9 knots
Maximum sustained winds 35 knots gusting to 45 knots
Comparative strength Tropical storm
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 25 to 30 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Mauritius, La Reunion
Maximum significant wave height 12 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

04S has formed north of Mauritius and will slowly intensify, whilst moving south, later southwest. Towards the end of the five-day forecast period, the system will veer south whilst peaking at 65 knots.

Please note
RSMC La Reunion intensifies Carlos to 75 knots within 24 hours.

Regional warnings
La Reunion (site in French) is on Yellow Alert
Mauritius is on a Class 1 cyclone warning

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Update from JTWC at 0600 GMT
System 98W
Position 7.6N 131.1E
Location 730 miles SE of Manila, Philippines
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 24 hours is MEDIUM

SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Update from JTWC at 1500 GMT
System 92S is now 04S

No comments: