8 April 2017 - bulletin 171

Updated at 0930 GMT
Latest warning for 15S
First warning for 16P
Disturbance updates



SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Tropical cyclone Ernie / 15S
Warning 05 from JTWC at 0900 GMT
Position 16.6S 110.0E
Location 413 miles NW of Learmonth, Australia
Movement 215° (SW) at 5 knots
Maximum sustained winds 95 knots gusting to 115 knots
Comparative strength HURRICANE
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 95 to 120 miles of the centre
Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 25 to 35 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses NONE
Maximum significant wave height 25 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 2100 GMT

Ernie is weakening as fast as it previously intensified. The storm will continue to move southwest, until it  dissipates within three days.

SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Tropical cyclone 16P
Warning 01 from JTWC at 0300 GMT
Position 15.0S 168.1E
Location 441 miles NNE of Noumea, New Caledonia
Movement 245° (WSW) at 4 knots
Maximum sustained winds 35 knots gusting to 45 knots
Comparative strength Tropical storm
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 40 to 100 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Maximum significant wave height 12 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 1500 GMT

16P has formed and will move south, through Vanuatu, whilst intensifying rapidly. The storm will veer southwest, later southeast and pass close to New Caledonia's Grande Terre island, before becoming extra-tropical.

Regional warnings
The Vanuatu Met Office  advises that a Blue Alert is in force for Malampa, Penama, Sanma and Shefa provinces. Damaging winds, very rough seas, heavy swells, heavy rainfall and flooding can be expected. Please monitor local government output, as linked from the VMO site.

Meteo France advises that the entire territory of New Caledonia is on a pre-alert for a tropical cyclone. Please note: site in French.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Update from JTWC at 0900 GMT
System 95P is now 16P

SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN

Update from JTWC at 1800 GMT
System 96P
Position 7.0S 133.6E
Location 365 miles NNE of Darwin, Australia
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 24 hours is LOW

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