8 April 2017 - bulletin 174

Updated at 2100 GMT
Latest warning for 15S
Disturbance update



SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Tropical cyclone Ernie / 15S
Warning 06 from JTWC at 2100 GMT
Position 16.9S 108.7E
Location 445 miles NW of Learmonth, Australia
Movement 255° (WSW) at 8 knots
Maximum sustained winds 90 knots gusting to 110 knots
Comparative strength HURRICANE
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 65 to 90 miles of the centre
Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 15 to 25 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses NONE
Maximum significant wave height 28 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0900 GMT

Ernie is weakening and will continue to move southwest, until it  dissipates within three days.

SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Tropical cyclone 16P
Warning 02 from JTWC at 1500 GMT
Position 16.4S 167.6E
Location 441 miles NNE of Noumea, New Caledonia
Movement 200° (SSW) at 6 knots
Maximum sustained winds 50 knots gusting to 65 knots
Comparative strength Tropical storm
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 60 to 120 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Vanuatu, New Caledonia
Maximum significant wave height 15 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

16P will move south, through Vanuatu, whilst intensifying rapidly to 100 knots. The storm will veer southwest, later southeast and pass close to New Caledonia's Grande Terre island, before becoming extra-tropical.

Regional warnings
The Vanuatu Met Office  advises that a Blue Alert is in force for Malampa, Penama, Sanma and Shefa provinces. Damaging winds, very rough seas, heavy swells, heavy rainfall and flooding can be expected. Please monitor local government output, as linked from the VMO site.

Meteo France advises that the entire territory of New Caledonia is on a pre-alert for a tropical cyclone. Please note: site in French.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN
Update from JTWC at 1800 GMT
System 96P
Position 7.5S 132.0E
Location 306 miles NNE of Darwin, Australia
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 24 hours is now MEDIUM

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