13 September 2017 - bulletin 573

Updated at 2105 GMT
Latest warnings for 12L, 15E, 16E, 20W and 21W
Disturbance update


NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
HURRICANE Jose / 12L
Warning 34 from NHC at 2100 GMT
Position 25.3N 65.6W
Location 485 miles S of Bermuda
Movement 180° (S) at 2 knots
Maximum sustained winds 65 knots gusting to 80 knots
Saffir-Simpson category: I
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 115 miles of the centre
Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 25 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses NONE
Minimum central pressure 988 mbar
Next warning from NHC at 0300 GMT

Jose is moving south whilst performing a loop to the south of Bermuda. The system will broadly maintain current intensity throughout the forecast period.

EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Tropical depression 15E
Warning 09 from NHC at 2100 GMT
Position 15.1N 121.3W
Location 920 miles SW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico
Movement 275° (W) at 6 knots
Maximum sustained winds 30 knots gusting to 40 knots
Threatened landmasses NONE
Minimum central pressure 1005 mbar
Next warning from NHC at 0300 GMT

15E will move west and is expected to intensify to 45 knots over the next few days.

Tropical storm Max / 16E
Warning 02 from NHC at 2100 GMT
Position 16.2N 101.7W
Location 115 miles WSW of Acapulco Mexico
Movement 070° (ENE) at 4 knots
Maximum sustained winds 30 knots gusting to 40 knots
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 35 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses NONE
Minimum central pressure 1005 mbar
Next warning from NHC at 0000 GMT

Max will move eastnortheast and make landfall within a day or so. The system will peak at 40 knots beforehand.

Regional warnings
A tropical storm watch is in force from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado
Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, locally up to 15 inches, can be expected over the Mexican states of southern Guerrero and western Oaxaca. Life-threatening mudslides and flash floods could occur.

NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TYPHOON Talim / 20W
Warning 21 from JTWC at 2100 GMT
Position 26.0N 124.9E
Location 159 miles W of Kadena AB, Okinawa, Japan
Movement 325° (NW) at 6 knots
Maximum sustained winds 105 knots gusting to 130 knots
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 165 to 210 miles of the centre
Winds of 64 knots or higher occur within 45 to 60 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses Taiwan, China, Japan
Maximum significant wave height 30 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

Talim is beginning to veer round to the northeast over the next few days and strengthen to 125 knots. The storm will make landfall in Kyushu on September 16th. 

Tropical storm Doksuri / 21W
Warning 09 from JTWC at 2100 GMT
Position 15.8N 113.4E
Location 295 miles E of Da Nang, Vietnam
Movement 280° (W) at 11 knots
Maximum sustained winds 60 knots gusting to 75 knots
Winds of 34 knots or higher occur within 85 to 135 miles of the centre
Threatened landmasses China, Vietnam
Maximum significant wave height 16 feet
Next warning from JTWC at 0300 GMT

Doksuri is crossing the South China Sea. The system will intensify to 90 knots, before making landfall in northern Vietnam.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE UPDATE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
Update from NHC at 1800 GMT
System No Invest Assigned
Position 16N 109W
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is HIGH (70%)
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 5 days is HIGH (90%)  

System No Invest Assigned
Position 11N 135W
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours is LOW (10%)
Likelihood of tropical cyclone formation within 5 days is LOW (20%)

No comments: